Source: Information Note, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 25 March 2022

• Before Russia’s invasion, Ukraine’s food exports were enough to feed 400 million people around the world [Link], with more than 95% of Ukraine’s food exports shipped via the Black Sea. [Link]
• In 2022, Ukraine was predicted to account for 12% of global wheat exports, 16% for corn, 18% for barley and 19% for rapeseed [Link].

Effects of the Russian war

• In June 2022, Ukraine’s grain exports fell 43% year-on-year to 1.41 million tonnes, according to the country’s agriculture ministry. The government predicts that Ukraine could harvest up 65 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds this year, compared with 106 million in 2021. [Link]
• Due to the Russian invasion and naval blockade, almost 25 million tonnes of grain are currently stuck in Ukraine. [Link]
• According to satellite data from NASA released in July, Russian forces now occupy about 22% of Ukraine’s farmland. [Link]
• Ukraine’s agriculture minister Mykola Solskyi has accused Russia of stealing 500,000 to 600,000 tonnes of wheat and exporting it secretly via the Crimean port of Sevastopol. [Link]
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said: “There are credible reports… that Russia is pilfering Ukraine’s grain exports to sell for its own profit.” [Link]
• On 7 June, Russian airstrikes on Kyiv destroyed warehouses that contained up to 300,000 tonnes of grain. [Link]
• On 22 June, Russian forces targeted two large grain terminals (owned by Canadian agribusiness Viterra and US trader Burge) in the Ukrainian port of Mykolaiv. According to the Wall Street Journal, Russia has also repeatedly hit a bridge that Ukrainian farmers use to take grain to the Romanian port of Constanta. [Link]
• On 31 July, a Russian missile attack on Mykolaiv killed Oleksiy Vadatursky, founder and owner of Nibulon, a major agriculture company. Nibulon specialises in the production and export of wheat, barley and corn and has its own fleet and shipyard. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that Mr Vadatursky had been building a modern grain network of terminals and elevators. [Link]

The blockade and Ukraine’s transportation alternatives

• Before Russia launched its war, Ukraine could export up to six million tonnes of grain per month. [Link]
• Currently, as long as Russia’s Black Sea blockade remains in place, Ukraine can only export a maximum of two million tonnes of grain a month. [Link]
• The war has caused Ukrainian farmers’ transportation costs to rise sharply. For example. the price to deliver barley to the Romanian port of Constanta is now US$160 to US$180 per ton, up from US$40 to US$45. [Link]
• Ukraine still controls its four largest ports, Chornomorsk, Odessa, Mykolaiv and Pivdenny, which collectively handled more than 85% of the country’s sea cargoes. However, Russia’s blockade has made it impossible to use these ports. [Link]
• Because of the war, Ukraine currently does not control four other Black Sea ports vital to exporting grain: Berdyansk, Kherson, Mariupol and Skadovsk.[Link]
• Ukraine has four ports on the Danube River: Kiliya, Izmail, Reni and Ust-Danube. Until recently these ports were unable to handle more than 300,000 tonnes of grain per month. [Link]
• Work is underway to expand the facilities at some of these ports, but capacity issues will remain hard to overcome. In early July, Ukrainian agriculture official Alla Stoyanova told The Guardian newspaper that “over 160 ships are awaiting in the Black Sea to enter the Sulina canal, but they can’t because the capacity of that canal is only 5-6 ships a day.” [Link]
• Ukraine is using its Danube ports, together with rail services, to transport grain to Romanian and Bulgarian ports. However, these efforts involve difficult logistical challenges. For example, one bulk carrier that left Constanta with 70,000 tonnes of grain in April was filled by a combination of 49 barges and trains. [Link]
• It is estimated that one road lorry can carry 25 tonnes of grain, while a train carriage can hold 60 tonnes, In order to load the equivalent of one grain carrier ship, 2,000 trucks would be required. [Link]
• Since the war started, 30% of Constanta’s operations now involve handling Ukrainian grain. The port has a grain storage capacity of 1.5 million tonnes, supported by the fastest cereal handling terminal in the European Union. [Link]
• Ukraine is also sending grain by train to Poland, for onward delivery to ports in Poland, Germany and the Baltic states. However, the Ukrainian rail system operates on a different gauge from other European countries including Poland, so the grain has to be transferred to different trains at the border. [Link]
• Following infrastructure improvements, Poland predicts it can soon handle around 1.5 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain per month, which would be two times the current amount passing through the country. [Link]
• On 21 July, Germany’s national railways company Deutsche Bahn announced plans to start freight train services, carrying Ukrainian grain to German ports for loading on ships. Several trains a week are planned, mostly picking up grain in Romania for transportation to Germany ports including Rostock, Hamburg and Brake. [Link]

The consequences for Ukraine

• Mykola Horbachov from the Ukrainian Grain Association said that farmers are facing the most difficult situation since the country gained independence in 1991. “Most of the farmers are running the risk of becoming bankrupt very soon. But they don’t have any other option but to sell their grain cheaper than its cost,” Horbachov told Associated Press. According to one Ukrainian farmer, before Russia’s invasion he could sell a ton of wheat for US$270, but now can’t find a buyer at US$135 per ton. [Link]
• In an interview with the Financial Times, Ukraine’s agriculture minister Mykola Solskyi predicted that the country’s farmers will reduce winter sowing of wheat and barley from 30% to 60% later this year if the main exports routes remain blocked. He said that many farmers will not have enough money to pay for seed, fertiliser, herbicide and fuel for winter wheat and would grow rapeseed instead, which commands a higher price but has a lower yield. [Link]
• On 20 July, the US government announced a US$100 million Ukraine Agriculture Resilience Initiative to provide Ukrainian farmers with vital supplies in order to maintain future harvests. The initiative will also include financing for farmers who are facing rising prices as their incomes have been hit. The United States Agency for International Development will work to raise an additional US$150 million from donors and the private sector. [Link]
• Farmers attempting to harvest their crops also risk becoming casualties of the invasion due to the dangers of Russian mines and unexploded ordinance. Several tractors have hit land mines while harvesting, with at least one farmer killed and more injured. [Link]
• In a tweet posted on 31 July, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the “Ukrainian harvest this year is under the threat to be twice less. Our main goal — to prevent global food crisis caused by Russian invasion. Still grains find a way to be delivered alternatively.” [Link]

The consequences for other countries

• Before the war started, 276 million people in 81 countries served by the World Food Programme (WFP) were acutely food insecure[1]. This was a record high, with an increase of 126 million people compared to before the COVID-19 pandemic. [Link]
• By early July, and as a direct result of the war in Ukraine, the WFP stated that 345 million people are acutely food insecure, while “50 million people in 45 countries are now just one step from famine.” [Link]
• The UN has said that up to 20 million people in eastern Africa could go hungry in 2022, due to the worst drought in four decades and the war in Ukraine. On 22 June, the WFP approved a US$2.3bn programme to help countries in eastern and southern Africa tackle food insecurity. [Link]

Additional information about grain exports to individual countries

Percentage of wheat imports sourced from Ukraine