Source: Information Note, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 25 March 2022

• Before Russia’s invasion, Ukraine’s food exports were enough to feed 400 million people around the world [Link], with more than 95% of Ukraine’s food exports shipped via the Black Sea. [Link]
• In 2022, Ukraine was predicted to account for 12% of global wheat exports, 16% for corn, 18% for barley and 19% for rapeseed [Link].

Effects of the Russian war – export updates and stolen grain

• On 9 September, Ukraine’s agriculture ministry said the country’s grain exports are down 48.6% year-on-year in the 2022/23 season so far at 5.291 million tonnes. This year’s exports include 3.17 million tonnes of corn, 1.65 million tonnes of wheat and 447,000 tonnes of barley. The volumes include 993,000 tonnes of grain exported so far in September versus 1.67 million tonnes exported in the same period last year. [Link]
• The government had previously said Ukraine could harvest 50 million tonnes of grain this year, compared with a record 86 million tonnes in 2021, because of the loss of land to Russian forces and lower grain yields. [Link]
• A report by the Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab stated that Russia has destroyed, damaged or seized control of 14% of Ukraine’s crop storage capacity since invading in February. Researchers examined satellite images of 344 storage facilities — out of almost 1,400 nationwide — and concluded that Ukraine’s grain storage capacity fell to 49.8 million tonnes, down from a pre-war capacity of 58 million tonnes. [Link]
• On 15 September, the US announced sanctions against five people for “supporting or enabling the theft of Ukraine’s grain” on behalf of Russia. The individuals included the mayor of Berdyansk, Oleksandr Fedorovych Saulenko, who has overseen the theft of hundreds of thousands of tons of Ukrainian grain through the city’s port; and Yevhen Vitaliiovych Balytskyi, who was appointed head of the Zaporizhzhia military-civilian administration by the Russian government and oversees the seizure of Ukrainian grain from that region. [Link]
• In October, a joint investigation by Associated Press and PBS revealed a Russian-run smuggling operation that has stolen Ukrainian grain worth at least US$530 million. The reporters used satellite imagery and marine radio transponder data to track 36 ships making more than 50 voyages carrying grain from Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine to ports in Turkey, Syria, Lebanon and other countries. [Link]

Ukraine’s transportation options

• Ukraine still controls its four largest ports, Chornomorsk, Odessa, Mykolaiv and Pivdenny, which collectively handled more than 85% of the country’s sea cargoes. However, Russia’s blockade made it impossible for Ukraine to use these ports until the UN agreement was implemented in August.
• Because of the war, Ukraine currently does not control four other Black Sea ports vital to exporting grain: Berdyansk, Kherson, Mariupol and Skadovsk.[Link]
• Ukraine has four ports on the Danube River: Kiliya, Izmail, Reni and Ust-Danube. Until recently these ports were unable to handle more than 300,000 tonnes of grain per month. [Link]
• Ukraine is using its Danube ports, together with rail services, to transport grain to Romanian and Bulgarian ports. However, these efforts involve difficult logistical challenges. For example, one bulk carrier that left Constanta with 70,000 tonnes of grain in April was filled by a combination of 49 barges and trains. [Link]
• It is estimated that one road lorry can carry 25 tonnes of grain, while a train carriage can hold 60 tonnes, In order to load the equivalent of one grain carrier ship, 2,000 trucks would be required. [Link]
• Ukraine is also sending grain by train to Poland, for onward delivery to ports in Poland, Germany and the Baltic states. However, the Ukrainian rail system operates on a different gauge from other European countries including Poland, so the grain has to be transferred to different trains at the border. [Link]
• On 8 September, Reuters predicted that it would take six months to ship the rest of the grain left over from Ukraine’s 2021/22 harvest, with the help of rail exports. During this time, this year’s current harvest could generate an additional 20 million tonnes of wheat and 30 million tonnes of corn. [Link]
• On 12 September, the French and Romanian governments signed an agreement allowing more grain exports from Ukraine to reach Europe and beyond. Ahead of the agreement, France’s Transport Minister Clément Beaune said the deal will cover exports “by river, sea and land.” [Link]

The consequences for Ukraine’s farmers

• Ukraine’s agriculture sector contributes 11% of the country’s GDP. [Link]
• According to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, approximately one third of last year’s wheat area has been lost due to the Russian invasion. [Link]
• Ukraine’s winter grain sowing area for the 2023 harvest is unlikely to exceed two million hectares and the harvest could fall by at least 50%, according to Alex Lissitsa, CEO of IMC, a large Ukrainian agriculture company. [Link]
• Mykola Horbachov from the Ukrainian Grain Association said that farmers are facing the most difficult situation since the country gained independence in 1991. “Most of the farmers are running the risk of becoming bankrupt very soon. But they don’t have any other option but to sell their grain cheaper than its cost,” Horbachov told Associated Press. [Link]
• On 20 July, the US government announced a US$100 million Ukraine Agriculture Resilience Initiative to provide Ukrainian farmers with vital supplies in order to maintain future harvests. The initiative will also include financing for farmers who are facing rising prices as their incomes have been hit. The United States Agency for International Development will work to raise an additional US$150 million from donors and the private sector. [Link]
• Pavlo Martyshev from the Kyiv School of Economics, has called for international support for Ukrainian farmers, including loans that could help small farms build temporary silos ahead of the next sowing season. [Link]

The consequences for other countries

• Before the war started, 276 million people in 81 countries served by the World Food Programme (WFP) were acutely food insecure[1]. This was a record high, with an increase of 126 million people compared to before the COVID-19 pandemic. [Link]
• By early July, and as a direct result of the war in Ukraine, the WFP stated that 345 million people are acutely food insecure, while “50 million people in 45 countries are now just one step from famine.” [Link]
• On 20 August, Associated Press reported that the United States is planning to buy 150,000 metric tons of Ukrainian grain for distribution by the WFP. [Link]

[1] According to the World Food Programme, “acute food insecurity is when a person’s inability to consume adequate food puts their lives or livelihoods in immediate danger”.

Additional information about grain exports to individual countries

Top Ukrainian wheat importers (million tonnes)