Source: Information Note, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 25 March 2022

• Before Russia’s invasion, Ukraine’s food exports were enough to feed 400 million people around the world [Link], with more than 95% of Ukraine’s food exports shipped via the Black Sea. [Link]
• In 2022, Ukraine was predicted to account for 12% of global wheat exports, 16% for corn, 18% for barley and 19% for rapeseed [Link].

Effects of the Russian war – export updates and stolen grain

• Before Russia launched its war, Ukraine could export up to six million tonnes of grain per month. [Link]
• Until August, Ukraine was only able to export a maximum of two million tonnes of grain a month. [Link]
• On 29 August, Ukraine’s agriculture minister Mykola Solsky predicted that the country’s agricultural exports could rise to 6 million – 6.5 million tonnes in October, double the volume seen in July. [Link]
• However, this year’s grain harvest is expected to fall to 50 million tonnes from 86 million tonnes in 2021. [Link]
• Mykola Solsky has accused Russia of stealing 500,000 to 600,000 tonnes of wheat and exporting it secretly via the Crimean port of Sevastopol. [Link]
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said: “There are credible reports… that Russia is pilfering Ukraine’s grain exports to sell for its own profit.” [Link]
• On 18 August, Associated Press reported that the SV Konstantin, a Russian cargo ship, had arrived at the Syrian port of Tartus. The Ukrainian Embassy in London said the Konstantin contained stolen Ukrainian wheat loaded at Sevastopol. In May, satellite images showed the Russian-flagged Matros Pozynich at dockside in Latakia, Syria. Ukraine said the ship had 27,000 tons of stolen grain that was initially offered to Egypt, which refused the cargo. [Link]

The blockade and Ukraine’s transportation alternatives

• Ukraine still controls its four largest ports, Chornomorsk, Odessa, Mykolaiv and Pivdenny, which collectively handled more than 85% of the country’s sea cargoes. However, Russia’s blockade made it impossible for Ukraine to use these ports until the UN agreement was signed on 22 July.
• Because of the war, Ukraine currently does not control four other Black Sea ports vital to exporting grain: Berdyansk, Kherson, Mariupol and Skadovsk.[Link]
• Ukraine has four ports on the Danube River: Kiliya, Izmail, Reni and Ust-Danube. Until recently these ports were unable to handle more than 300,000 tonnes of grain per month. [Link]
• Ukraine is using its Danube ports, together with rail services, to transport grain to Romanian and Bulgarian ports. However, these efforts involve difficult logistical challenges. For example, one bulk carrier that left Constanta with 70,000 tonnes of grain in April was filled by a combination of 49 barges and trains. [Link]
• It is estimated that one road lorry can carry 25 tonnes of grain, while a train carriage can hold 60 tonnes, In order to load the equivalent of one grain carrier ship, 2,000 trucks would be required. [Link]
• Ukraine is also sending grain by train to Poland, for onward delivery to ports in Poland, Germany and the Baltic states. However, the Ukrainian rail system operates on a different gauge from other European countries including Poland, so the grain has to be transferred to different trains at the border. [Link]

The consequences for Ukraine’s farmers

• Ukraine’s agriculture sector contributes 11% of the country’s GDP. [Link]
• According to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, approximately one third of last year’s wheat area has been lost due to the Russian invasion. [Link]
• Ukraine’s winter wheat area sown for the 2023 harvest will fall by at least 20% from 2022, to around 3.8 million hectares. [Link]
• Mykola Horbachov from the Ukrainian Grain Association said that farmers are facing the most difficult situation since the country gained independence in 1991. “Most of the farmers are running the risk of becoming bankrupt very soon. But they don’t have any other option but to sell their grain cheaper than its cost,” Horbachov told Associated Press. [Link]
• On 20 July, the US government announced a US$100 million Ukraine Agriculture Resilience Initiative to provide Ukrainian farmers with vital supplies in order to maintain future harvests. The initiative will also include financing for farmers who are facing rising prices as their incomes have been hit. The United States Agency for International Development will work to raise an additional US$150 million from donors and the private sector. [Link]
• Pavlo Martyshev from the Kyiv School of Economics, has called for international support for Ukrainian farmers, including loans that could help small farms build temporary silos ahead of the next sowing season. [Link]

The consequences for other countries

• Before the war started, 276 million people in 81 countries served by the World Food Programme (WFP) were acutely food insecure[1]. This was a record high, with an increase of 126 million people compared to before the COVID-19 pandemic. [Link]
• By early July, and as a direct result of the war in Ukraine, the WFP stated that 345 million people are acutely food insecure, while “50 million people in 45 countries are now just one step from famine.” [Link]
• On 20 August, Associated Press reported that the United States is planning to buy 150,000 metric tons of Ukrainian grain for distribution by the WFP. [Link]

[1] According to the World Food Programme, “acute food insecurity is when a person’s inability to consume adequate food puts their lives or livelihoods in immediate danger”.

Additional information about grain exports to individual countries

 Top Ukrainian wheat importers (million tonnes)